Friday, November 11, 2011 | Edited by Daniel Moores
Disconnect: Nielsen Finds No Relationship Between Clicks And Sales

In case there was any confusion, Nielsen reiterated this week that it has found virtually no relationship between clicks and brand metrics, or offline sales.

Hammering home the point, it just released a case study on a campaign for an unnamed household product, which attempted to demonstrate the disconnect between marketers' short- and long-term campaign goals.

Targeting women 25-54, the secret consumer packaged goods advertiser was only able to reach its intended audience 27% of the time. Worse still, Nielsen found high frequency rates for older demographics, including both males and females.

"The advertiser was understandably concerned about the percentage of audience reached, and the disproportionate number of impressions delivered to older demographics and males," according to Nielsen.

What went wrong? Perhaps its overreliance on -- or bad taste in -- ad networks, Nielsen suggested.

Indeed, while many marketers assume that ad networks are positioned to serve the most addressable advertising to specific audiences, most precision marketing is based on statistical models, which inevitably have some degree of error.

"It would be a mistake to assume that all ad networks or demographic models are created equal," according to Nielsen. "It's critical to measure the efficacy of delivery using campaign reporting to ensure the tools and audience are aligned with the premium pricing charged for that model."

Nielsen also analyzed the brand impact of the campaign to gain a more complete view of the effort's success. One concern was "message association" -- or the degree to which a respondent can associate a campaign message with the advertised brand -- which is often a challenge due to clutter.

Yet across the board, the campaign performed well on this metric, particularly in its core demographic, which indicated effective creative.

Also of note, purchase consideration was impacted less than message association. Per Nielsen, this is fairly common, since purchase intent is further down the sales funnel -- and requires an actual change in thinking or behavior.

Meanwhile, one of what Nielsen called its "more enlightening findings" -- the cost per person within the higher CPM sub-demographic of women 25-34 -- was actually less expensive than the demos outside of the intended audience.

This was likely due to the quality of the creative itself and its ability to impact the intended audience, Nielsen surmises.

In addition, this finding could have showed that the increased frequency to the non-core demographics is even more wasteful than previously believed. In other words, each impression served outside of the core demographic has a higher cost per person.

(Source: Online Media Daily, 11/08/11)
Local Digital Media Forecast Higher, But Sluggish Overall

Better news for the local digital media platform: Media revenues will total $23.3 billion by the end of this year, up a bit from earlier forecasts.

Chantilly, Va.-based media researcher BIA/Kelsey raised its forecast for what it says is a "robust performance" among local digital media sites.

Earlier this year BIA/Kelsey estimated that the local digital media market would reach $22.3 billion in revenue by the end of 2011. Local digital media will represent 17.2% of all local media, up from a projected 16.4% share.

All this comes against a total local media market forecast downgrade to $135.9 billion, down from $136.2 billion. Mark Fratrik, vp and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey, explains in a release the effect of a slowdown of overall local media.

"That 'pulling back' by national and local businesses is hitting hard some of the more traditional media, due in part to the generally lower prices of some digital media and the desire by these businesses to shift their budgets to targeted audience opportunities and performance models."

BIA/Kelsey says that in four years, local digital media's share of all overall local media will rise to 25.4%. In five years, it says all local media revenues will inch up 1.7%, reaching $149.4 billion.

Fratrik adds: "As the economy wavers between meager growth and the prospect of a second recession dip, advertisers remain guarded and apprehensive about making spending commitments."

(Source: Media Daily News, 11/07/11)
A Look at Mobile Shopping Behaviors on Smartphones and Tablets This Holiday Season

Mobile Users are integrating their smartphones and tablets into all aspects of their daily lives, and holiday shopping is no exception. 61.7% of Mobile Users say they plan to use their smartphone or tablet for holiday shopping this year, according to a recent survey among smartphone and tablet users on mobile devices conducted by Prosper Mobile Insights.

Most of these avid Mobile Holiday Shoppers (60.8%) plan to use their device mostly as a "mobile mall" -- purchasing products and comparing prices. The other 39.2% plan to use their device mainly as a data organizer to keep track of gift lists, budgets, sales, etc. On average, Mobile Holiday Shoppers say they plan to make 37.9% of their holiday purchases from their device.

Of those who plan to use a smartphone or tablet for holiday shopping, the majority (56.7%) anticipates using their device mostly during the planning and research stage. 2 in 5 (40.2%) plan to use their device mainly during the shopping/in-store stage while 3.1% plan to use a smartphone or tablet mostly to share their shopping experiences with others.

Mobile Holiday Shoppers will likely be on the lookout for Black Friday weekend deals, especially ones they can benefit from on their mobile devices. The majority of Mobile Holiday Shoppers say they are somewhat or very likely to use their mobile device to purchase products on Black Friday and Cyber Monday:

Somewhat/Very Likely to Purchase Products on Mobile Device (Mobile Holiday Shoppers)
  • Thanksgiving Day: 30.1%
  • Black Friday: 66.9%
  • Saturday after Thanksgiving: 58.6%
  • Sunday after Thanksgiving: 48.6%
  • Cyber Monday: 63.5%
While Thanksgiving weekend is bound to see plenty of mobile shopping traffic, the majority of Mobile Holiday Shoppers are NOT likely to purchase items using a mobile device on Thanksgiving Day.

Mobile Holiday Shopping? There are apps for that! The top app Mobile Holiday Shoppers plan to use this year is Amazon -- 18.2% plan to use this app to purchase products for the holidays while 8.5% will use it to help plan their shopping. Other top apps for purchasing products include eBay (6.1%), Google (2.2%), a barcode scanner (1.9%) and PayPal (1.9%). Other popular planning apps include Google (5.8%), Notes (4.0%), Shop Savvy (2.9%) and Safari (2.1%).

Mobile Holiday Shoppers plan to search for 3 key gift categories: electronics, clothes and entertainment items. 3 in 4 (77.0%) plan to research electronics on their smartphone or tablet, and half (49.9%) plan to make an electronics purchase from their device. Entertainment items such as books and DVDs are the top gifts Mobile Holiday Shoppers plan to purchase using a mobile device:

Plan to Research on Smartphone/Tablet -- Top 3 Categories (Mobile Holiday Shoppers)
  • Electronics: 77.0%
  • Books/CDs/DVDs/Blu-ray/Video Games: 70.7%
  • Clothing or clothing accessories: 63.0%
Plan to Purchase on a Smartphone/Tablet -- Top 3 Categories (Mobile Holiday Shoppers)
  • Books/CDs/DVDs/Blu-ray/Video Games: 58.0%
  • Clothing or clothing accessories: 52.5%
  • Electronics: 49.9%
Candy, appliances, home décor, beauty items and gift cards are not likely to trigger many mobile searches: over half of Mobile Users plan to neither purchase nor research these items on a mobile device.

(Source: BIGResearch, 11/09/11. Sources cited include Prosper Mobile Insights Mobile Survey, October, 2011. For the full, complimentary Special Holiday Report, http://www.formsite.com/prosper/Mobile110911/. Registration required.)

Daily Sales Tip: True Story Teaches an Important Lesson

This is a true story. Three men doing time in an Israeli prison recently appeared before a parole board consisting of a judge, a criminologist and a social worker. The three prisoners had completed at least two thirds of their sentences, but the parole board granted freedom to only one of them.

Which one and why?

Case 1 (heard at 8:50 AM) An Arab Israeli serving a 30-month sentence for fraud.

Case 2 (heard at 3:10 PM) A Jewish Israeli serving a 16-month sentence for assault.

Case 3 (heard at 4:25 PM) An Arab Israeli serving a 30-month sentence for fraud.

Here's a hint. There was a pattern to the Board's decisions. So what was your answer?

Here's what happened.

Although there was a pattern to the Board's decisions, it was not related to the men's ethnic backgrounds, crimes or sentences. It was about timing. Yes, timing. Researchers discovered in analyzing more than 1,100 decisions over the course of a year, that prisoners who appeared early in the morning received parole about 70 percent of the time, while those who appeared late in the day were paroled less than 10 percent of the time.

The odds favored the prisoner who appeared at 8:50 AM and he did in fact receive parole. But even though the other Arab Israeli was serving the same sentence for the same crime -- fraud -- the odds were against him when he appeared at 4:25 in the afternoon. He was denied parole.

The researchers found that the mental work of making decision after decision wore the Board down...mental fatigue. Simply put, most people are more positive in the early morning and more negative in the afternoon.

If you are an owner, a sales manager, or a salesperson, make visits to get decisions in the morning. Get out of the office, make eyeball-to-eyeball visits and get those clients closed and on the air. You and your station will make more money.

Source: Bud Stiker, Radio International Consulting, budstiker@yahoo.com

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