Thursday, April 5, 2012 | Edited by Daniel Moores
Expectations Rising for Housing Market's Spring Season

The spring home-selling season could be the strongest in years and may foreshadow which markets will lead a battered housing industry in an anemic recovery, economists say.

"This spring will be the litmus test for housing demand," says Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities USA.

The spring season typically runs March through June but may have started early this year because of unseasonably warm weather.

While last year was dismal for existing home sales, this year is looking better. Existing home sales in February were up 9% from the same time a year ago, as was the Pending Home Sale Index, which reflects signed contracts leading to sales, says the National Association of Realtors.

Meanwhile, Realtors' confidence in the single-family home market is the highest in four years, according to a late February NAR survey of 4,300 agents. Coldwell Banker says its website's traffic was up 47% in February from last year.

This spring season "will be the best in four or five years," says economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

But not all markets will move together, and spring sales may signal which ones are improving or still declining, says Eric Fox, Veros Real Estate Solutions economist.

Veros forecasts that U.S. home prices overall will drop 0.85% in the next 11 months but that 40% of 321 metropolitan areas will see prices rise.

Phoenix will do best, according to Veros. Given a 42% drop in home supply and a relatively strong economy, Phoenix homes will see a 5% price gain this year, Veros says.

A similar-size drop in supply is also helping Denver, says Scott Webber, president of Fuller Sotheby's International Realty. "We've returned to a much more balanced market," he says.

Denver prices rose 0.2% in January year-over-year, the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index shows. Of 20 cities, only Denver, Phoenix and Detroit posted annual gains, S&P says.

Webber says non-distressed homeowners still hesitate to sell, but others see a shift. In Central Pennsylvania, Coldwell Banker saw a 30% jump in new listings in February over a year ago. March was strong, too, says manager Naomi Fredlund.

"People were holding off," hoping for stronger prices, Fredlund says. "Now, they're selling." She expects flat prices.

Spring sales could disappoint because a mild winter drew some buyers into the market earlier, Dales says. Also, investors bought a record 25.4% of homes in February, says a Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance survey. They buy all year and may mute the impact of the spring season this year.

Any hits to consumer confidence could also curtail sales in what's "poised to potentially be a good season," says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic economist.

(Source: USA Today, 04/02/12)
Retail Sales of Craft Beer Are Hopping

Anyone responsible for stocking a beer cave these days will not be surprised at the following news: craft beer is growing.

According to 2011 data just released by the Brewers Association, U.S. craft brewers saw volume rise 13 percent last year, along with a 15-percent increase in retail sales from 2010 to 2011. That figure represents a total barrel increase of 1.3 million.

In 2011, craft brewers represented 5.68 percent of the volume in the U.S. beer market, up from 4.97 percent, with production reaching 11,468,152 barrels. Additionally, the BA estimated that the actual dollar sales figure from craft brewers in 2011 was $8.7 billion, up from $7.6 billion in 2010. Increased retail sales represented 9.1 percent of the $95.5-million U.S. beer market, the association said in a release.

"While the overall beer market experienced a 1.32-percent volume decrease in 2011, craft brewing saw significant growth, surpassing 5 percent total market volume share for the first time," said Paul Gatza, director of the Brewers Association. "It's becoming increasingly clear that with the variety of styles and flavors to choose from, Americans are developing a strong taste for high-quality, small-batch beer from independent brewers."

With 250 brewery openings and only 37 closings, the BA also reported that 1,989 breweries were operating in the United States last year, an 11-percent increase over the previous year.

"We saw rapid growth in brewery openings last year, particularly with microbrewery start-ups, and these numbers are poised to rise even more in 2012," Gatza added. "In February 2012, we already topped 2,000 operating breweries -- a truly remarkable milestone. We look forward to even more success and the continued expansion of the craft beer market."

Craft brewers are defined as small, independent brewers with annual production of less than six million barrels.

(Source: Convenience Store News, 03/29/12)
Consumers Using Tax Refunds for Vehicle-Related Purchases

As Tax Day fast approaches and refunds begin making their way into the bank accounts of many Americans, a new survey commissioned by eBay Motors found that more than one-third of vehicle owners plan to use their anticipated tax refunds for something related to their car, truck, or motorcycle.

Conducted for eBay Motors by Harris Interactive, the survey polled more than 2,200 adults across the United States, 34 percent of which said they will spend part of their tax refund money to buy a new or used car or truck, or to spruce up their current vehicle. The following is a breakdown of the results:
  • Maintenance (49 percent)
  • Repairs (32 percent)
  • Buying a new or used vehicle (21 percent)
  • Tires (19 percent)
  • Cleaning or detailing (14 percent)
On average, respondents who expect to spend at least some of their refund on a vehicle or parts and accessories plan to put 31 percent of this year's refund toward a vehicle-related expense. In addition, 42 percent of respondents say they plan to take automotive-related deductions when they file their taxes.

"The survey findings support the trends we have seen over the past few years in relation to sales and search increases on eBay Motors over the course of the tax season," said Gregory Boutte, vice president of eBay Motors and Electronics in North America.

In 2010 and 2011, total searches for parts and accessories on eBay Motors during tax season (March and April) grew 17 percent and 23 percent, respectively, when compared to the average number of searches in other months of the year. As a result, sales of parts and accessories have also shown growth during the tax season in prior years.

Tires and wheels have traditionally been the most popular tax-season accessories eBay shoppers purchase for their vehicles. Other popular items include grilles, motorcycle parts and motorcycle accessories, including jackets, leathers and helmets.

Boutte added that Americans appear to view tax refunds as opportunities to make purchases of vehicles associated with the joys of driving. The search terms on eBay Motors that have shown the greatest increase in frequency during the past two tax seasons are motorcycles, sports cars and exotic-related vehicles, such as Harley-Davidson, Corvette and Mustang.

The Harris Interactive online survey was conducted February 13 and 15, 2012, and was weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population and to adjust for the respondents' propensity to be online.

(Source: F&I Magazine, 04/03/12)

Daily Sales Tip: Watch Your Time with Presentations

Have you ever had a key decision-maker leave in the middle of your presentation because he or she was out of time? You aren't holding the attention of a prospect who is looking at the clock!

At the beginning of the call, ask how much time the prospect has set aside. Then adjust your presentation to take no more than 60 percent of the allotted time.

Why only 60 percent? Because your prospect's decisions to act typically occur at the end of a meeting, so you want to allow enough time to resolve any remaining issues and reach an agreement.

Source: Sales consultant/trainer Kevin Davis

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