Holiday sales expected to slow, but still top $1.6 trillion

Holiday retail sales are expected to increase between 2.9% and 3.4% this season, according to Deloitte's annual forecast. That would bring total sales for November through January to between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion – lower than last year's 4.2% gain, but roughly in line with pre-pandemic growth averages. Ecommerce is projected to keep climbing, rising between 7% and 9% year-over-year to reach as much as $310.7 billion, similar to last year's 8% increase. Deloitte points to steady growth in disposable personal income as a key driver, though it warns inflation and higher credit costs could still pinch spending.