CPI Shelter Forecasts: Expecting little change

Relative unchanged from last month’s estimates, we forecast March seasonally adjusted owner’s equivalent rent growth to continue to slow to 3.47% annualize growth. Similarly, seasonally adjusted rent for primary residences is expected to slow to 3.10% annualized growth. In fact, Zillow’s CPI shelter release forecast for the next six months was relatively unchanged, however full market rent captured by the CPI measures is now expected to soften more aggressively towards the end of 2025 into the next.