2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook

U.S. holiday retail sales are forecast to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, growing 4.5%, according to Bain & Company. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5% and still account for nearly 70% of holiday sales, while nonstore sales are projected to jump 9%. Consumers remain price-conscious, and more than 90% plan to shop Black Friday, Cyber Monday or another major sales event, making promotions and competitive pricing especially important this season.

The outlook gives sellers a strong reason to start holiday conversations now with local retailers, department and discount stores, clothing and jewelry stores, electronics retailers, toy stores, sporting goods businesses and home furnishings retailers. With consumers shopping across both physical and digital channels, sellers can help businesses promote value, special events, exclusive products and holiday offers that give shoppers a reason to choose them over competitors.