The Sky Isn't Falling

Yesterday, I hosted a sales meeting for one of our great members. In advance of meetings like this, I like to ask the sellers a simple question: “What one thing is preventing you from being even more successful?”

Amanda, one of the team members, was first to answer. She said,

“The one thing that's preventing me from performing even better than I am right now is the state of the economy, compounded by selling in the somewhat impoverished area that is Southern Illinois. While businesses should realize the value in advertising even in tough times—when it's even MORE imperative—they tend to have a mentality that marketing is expendable, and it's often one of the first expenses to be cut. I have had clients forced to choose between paying their electric bill and paying for advertising. Sometimes, I admit, that is a tough argument.”

She’s right. That is a tough argument. And when a business is truly struggling to keep the lights on, no clever sales technique changes that reality.

But Amanda's comment got me thinking about something else happening right now. Are some businesses making decisions based on their actual business conditions—or based on how they feel about the economy after consuming a steady diet of negative news?

Because the numbers tell an interesting story.

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau report, retail and food-service sales reached $773.9 billion in August, up 1.2% from July and 6.0% from August 2025. Even more interesting, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor—based on actual anonymized credit- and debit-card transactions—reported that August marked the 11th consecutive month of retail sales growth. NRF's core retail sales were up 3.47% year over year.

Consumers may be worried. They may be more selective. They may be searching harder for value. But one thing the data does not say is that consumers have stopped spending.

That's an important distinction for sellers.

When a client says, “The economy is bad, so we need to cut advertising,” our job isn't to argue that the economy is great. It's not. Different businesses and communities are experiencing very different realities. Our job is to help the client separate perception from behavior and determine what is actually happening in their business.

Here are three questions that can change the conversation:

1. “What are you seeing in your own numbers?” Before accepting the national narrative as an explanation, get local. Are sales actually down? Is traffic down? Is the average transaction smaller? Are certain categories performing better than others? Sometimes the answer will confirm that business really is down. But sometimes, you'll discover that the owner's anxiety about the economy is greater than the decline in their actual numbers.
2. “If consumers are still spending, where are they spending instead?” This may be the most important question. Consumers haven't disappeared. They still need cars repaired, roofs replaced, groceries purchased, furniture, healthcare, entertainment and hundreds of other products and services. If they're not spending with your client, they're probably spending somewhere. The question isn't simply whether consumers are spending. It's whether they're spending with you—or somebody else.
3. “If your competitors cut their marketing right now, is this the time for you to disappear too—or is it the time to become more visible?” When uncertainty hits, cutting marketing can feel like an easy way to reduce expenses. But reducing visibility doesn't create demand. It can simply make it easier for competitors to capture the customers who are still in the marketplace. Tough markets don't eliminate the need to compete for attention; they can make that competition even more important.

There will always be economic headlines. Some good. Some bad. And there will absolutely be businesses facing genuine financial hardship. We should never minimize that reality.

But we also shouldn't allow headlines to become an excuse for surrender.

The headlines may describe how consumers feel. The cash register tells us what they're doing.

The next time a client tells you, “Nobody is spending right now,” don't argue with them. Get curious. Bring the data. Ask better questions.

Because if consumers are still spending, perhaps the real question isn't, “Where did all the customers go?”

Maybe it's:

“What do we need to do to make sure more of them choose you?”

At the end of the day, the reality is that the economy is cyclical. The sky is not falling. Your client’s customer may just be shopping somewhere else.

And that’s a problem we can help them with!

Think Big. Make Big Things Happen.

Jeff Schmidt is the SVP of Professional Development. You can reach him at Jeff.Schmidt@RAB.com. You can also connect with him on X, YouTube and LinkedIn.