US Holiday Retail Sales Poised For Strongest Growth In Five Years

Holiday retail sales are projected to grow 5.2% in 2026, reaching $1.08 trillion, according to EY-Parthenon, marking the strongest growth since 2021. The forecast, which covers November and December and excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, anticipates a 2.9% increase in inflation-adjusted sales, with prices rising 2.3%. Online holiday sales are expected to jump 10.5%, roughly twice the pace of overall retail growth. Despite continued consumer spending, inflation and slower income growth are expected to make shoppers more selective, increasing the importance of competitive pricing, promotions and convenience.

Department stores, clothing retailers, electronics stores and other holiday-focused retailers can capitalize on seasonal shopping demand by highlighting competitive prices, limited-time promotions and gift selections for different budgets. With online sales growing rapidly, retailers offering both in-store and online shopping can emphasize convenient purchasing options, product availability and reliable delivery or pickup services.