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RAB Research Archive

Auto Care



  • The auto care industry is a $516B industry employing 4.9M professionals with the total light, medium- and heavy-duty aftermarket forecast to reach $664.3B by 2028. (Source: Auto Care Association; Auto Care 2026 Factbook)
  • Businesses in this industry care for over 292.1M light vehicles with 3.31T miles driven and 14.9M medium/heavy vehicles with over 330B miles driven. (Source: S&P Global Mobility/Auto Care Factbook 2026 & The Federal Highway Administration)
  • Businesses in the aftermarket industry expect organizational sales to be flat in 2026 compared to 2025. (Source: 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey Report, AAPEX, March 2026)
    • 31% expect to beat sales goals in 2026.
    • 42% said they would meet goals. 
    • 27% think sales will be below expectations.
    • Six in 10 respondents (61%) say demand for aftermarket parts and services will grow in 2026.
  • The primary challenge facing the aftermarket is economic uncertainty (45%) followed closely by attracting skilled talent (36%). Other challenges cited include: (Source: 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey Report, AAPEX, March 2026)
    • Developing competitive pricing, 31%
    • Retaining skilled talent, 26%
    • Increased competition, 25%
    • Customers deferring orders or services, 21%
    • Improving supply chain resilience, 20%
    • Access to OEM diagnostic data, 18%
    • Keeping pace with tech innovation, 17%
    • Sourcing materials, 12%
  • While consumers are worried about prices, keeping a vehicle operating safely is still the priority with quality being the top driver for parts selection (34%) followed by: (Source: 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey Report, AAPEX, March 2026)
    • Low price/private label, 25%
    • Availability, 20%
    • Brand reputation, 16%
  • Only 21% of aftermarket companies plan to invest in enterprise AI tools (beyond ChatGPT and the like.) Among this group, 60% plan to invest in AI to assist with customer service, followed by: (Source: 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey Report, AAPEX, March 2026)
    • Inventory management, 42%
    • Product development, 36%
    • Supply chain optimization, 34%
    • Predictive maintenance, 24%
    • Marketing, R&D and repair diagnostics, 7%
  • National Car Care Month is primarily recognized in April, serving as a reminder to perform spring maintenance. A second, fall-focused Car Care Month occurs in October. These months encourage drivers to check tires, fluids, brakes and batteries to ensure vehicle safety and reliability for changing seasons. (Source; Be Care Aware, 2026)

Auto Mechanics

  • Auto mechanics provide mechanical and electrical repair and maintenance for a variety of vehicles, including cars, trucks, vans and trailers. This industry has largely experienced healthy growth as the number of vehicles on the road has expanded, along with the average age of the vehicle fleet and is expected to hit $89B by 2031. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Mechanic shops have been facing a growing shortage of skilled technicians that will continue to widen over the coming years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers report difficulty finding workers with the right skills and education to perform increasingly complex auto services and repairs.
    • This shortage has partially been brought on by skilled technicians going to work for larger chain companies. Mechanics are typically paid based on commissions, so they are more likely to work for the shops that will see the most steady business.
    • The tariffs announced by the Trump administration early in his second term have significant implications for this industry, which depends on international trade. Specifically, the 50% tariff on Chinese auto parts and the 25% tariff on auto parts from all other nations have created a climate of uncertainty for businesses engaged in cross-border trade.
  • 32% of industry revenue for mechanics comes from a steady flow of scheduled and preventative repair and maintenance services. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Services include basic car maintenance and a wide variety of small repair jobs that are done to ensure that more serious and expensive vehicle damage is prevented.
    • This segment also includes legally mandated regulatory inspections and emissions testing that automobiles must regularly undergo to be legally permitted to operate on the road.
  • Powertrain repair services like the engine, transmission, wheels, axle and other crucial parts account for 18% of industry revenue. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • A transition toward electric vehicles could reduce this segment's revenue share, as they require one-fifth the amount of powertrain parts used by traditional combustion engine vehicles. However, these parts are less common and usually come at a higher price than traditional gas engine parts.
  • About 17% of industry revenue comes from brake repair service. Similar to a vehicle's powertrain, properly working brakes are crucial to basic vehicle operation, and thus, this segment's share of revenue is never likely to dip significantly.
  • Other industry services, in total accounting for 33.2% of revenue, include a wide spectrum of other car, truck and other vehicle repair work. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Wheel alignment and repair services, 8.1% of revenue.
    • Electrical system repair services, 6.4% of revenue.
    • Heating repair services, 4.9% of revenue.
    • Muffler and exhaust repair services, 3.3% of revenue.
    • Other – 10.5% of revenue.
  • A shift towards subscription-based vehicle maintenance services will reshape how mechanics engage with customers. The subscription model fosters ongoing customer relationships, emphasizing the importance of excellent customer service and communication for mechanics. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Mechanics may increasingly adopt predictive maintenance models, leveraging real-time data to anticipate and address potential issues before they become major problems. Mechanics might need to develop customizable service packages that cater to subscribers' diverse needs and adapt to changing vehicle technologies.
    • Subscribers often enjoy fixed monthly maintenance costs, which provide financial predictability and ease of budget management. By addressing issues early and spreading maintenance costs over time, subscribers may experience significant cost savings compared to traditional, ad-hoc repairs.
  • There are over 315K auto mechanics in the U.S. with nearly 68% of total industry operators being small and independently owned, local shops. Major chains that have a notable market share in the auto mechanics industry include: (Sources: IBISWorld, March 2026; D&B 2026)
    • Monro Muffler Brake Inc., headquartered in Fairport, New York
      • Monro is a leading nationwide operator of retail tire and automotive repair stores in the U.S.
      • It offers replacement tires and tires related services, automotive undercar repair services and a broad range of routine maintenance services, primarily on passenger cars, light trucks and vans.
      • The company also provides other products and services for brakes, mufflers and exhaust systems, steering, drive train, suspension and wheel alignment.
      • Monro operates in more than 30 states, its retail tire and automotive repair stores operate primarily under the brands Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, Mr. Tire Auto Service Centers, Car-X Tire & Auto, Tire Warehouse Tires for Less, Ken Towery's Tire & Auto Care, Mountain View Tire & Auto Service and Tire Barn Warehouse.
      • Monro serviced approximately 4.2 million vehicles in the recent fiscal year.
    • TBC Corp., headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
      • A subsidiary of private-brand tire supplier TBC, the company operates more than 730 Tire Kingdom, National Tire and Battery and Merchant's tire and automotive service outlets in more than 20 states.
      • It also has about 490 Big O Tires retail franchises. 
      • TBC Retail's locations market national brands like Michelin, Goodyear and Uniroyal, as well as its parent's own Sigma brand. (Tire sales account for about 60% of business.) 
    • AAMCO, headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania
      • AAMCO Transmissions is one of the most trusted and recognized automotive brands in the country.
      • The company has over 600 locations and has serviced more than 20M cars. In addition to transmission work (such as reseal services and clutch services), AAMCO locations provide heating and cooling system service, as well as other general maintenance services that range from brakes, struts, shocks, exhaust and mufflers and tune-ups.
    • Driven Brands, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina
      • The holding company boasts a solid portfolio of franchise brands, including vehicle maintenance and repair businesses Meineke Car Care Centers and Econo Lube N' Tune as well as auto body repair businesses CARSTAR and MAACO Franchising (which holds roughly half of the U.S. auto production paint market).
      • Driven Brands also owns vehicle paint repair chain Aero Colours, mobile detailing and maintenance business AutoQual and mobile accessory installer Drive N Style.
      • The company provides online training and interactive content to its franchisees through its Tortal subsidiary.
    • TravelCenters of America Inc., headquartered in Westlake, Ohio
      • TravelCenters of America operates or franchises some 285 travel centers, standalone truck service facilities and standalone restaurants primarily targeting trucking fleets and their drivers, independent truck drivers, highway and local motorists and casual diners.
      • Its brands include TravelCenters of America, TA, TA Express, Petro Stopping Centers and Petro. TCA's travel centers offer a broad range of products and services, including diesel fuel and gasoline, as well as nonfuel products and services such as truck repair and maintenance services, diesel exhaust fluid, full-service restaurants, quick service restaurants and various customer amenities. 
    • Love's Travel Stops & Country Stores Inc., headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
      • The nation's largest travel-stop network, Love's Travel Stops & Country Stores operates approximately 645 travel stop locations.
      • Each travel stop includes a convenience store; a fast-food restaurant, such as Taco Bell or Subway; and gas outlets for cars, trucks and RVs.
      • The travel stops also provide shower rooms, laundry facilities, game rooms and truck parking.
      • Love's truck service centers offer services for professional drivers through Speedco and Love's Truck Care, which combined are the largest oil change, preventative maintenance and truck care national network with about 1,500 maintenance bays, and approximately 1,200 emergency roadside vehicles available for customers.
      • Love's has around 430 truck service centers, which include Speedco and Love's Truck Care locations.
  • The top challenges that auto shop owners report for 2026 represent a shift from pandemic-era supply chain issues to broader economic and complexity-driven challenges: (Source: IMR Inc, January 2026)
    • 46.0%, Finding affordable parts and managing rising prices.
    • 35.8%, Keeping overhead costs low and managing the daily impact of the economy.
    • 28.6%, Bringing customers back and finding new business.
    • 23.8%, Finding qualified or responsible technicians.
    • 22.8%, Dealing with parts shortages and finding necessary parts.
    • 7.6%, Providing affordable service/repairs to price-sensitive customers.
    • 4.8%, Getting parts on time for scheduling and workflow.
  • Vehicles aged six to 12 years remain the primary revenue source for auto care shops. (Source: Experian Automotive Market Trends, September 2025)
    • As of Q2 2025, 35.5% of all light-duty vehicles fall into this category.
  • 63% of shops do not expect EV/hybrid growth to impact their business within the next two years, with 46% believing the real impact is 10 years away. (Source: IMR Inc., September 2025)
    • 61% of shops report an increase in BEVs coming in for service, and 77% report an increase in hybrids.
    • Larger shops (eight+ bays) see an 80% increase in EV visits, whereas only 25% of small shops (one to three bays) report a similar trend.
    • 48% of shops have empowered technicians with targeted training, and nearly 50% have invested in specialized tools for EV/hybrid maintenance.
  • To succeed in 2026 and beyond, auto care shops must navigate a "fleet split" where the average age of traditional vehicles has reached a record 13 years, while high-tech electric vehicles (EVs) are growing at a 21.3% CAGR. Success will be defined by a shop's ability to master digital complexity while managing rising operational costs: (Sources: NetSolutions, March 2026; Identifix, 2026)
    • Overcoming the "Diagnostic Lockdown"
      • Modern vehicles now use encrypted gateways that require an OEM-authorized digital "handshake" to perform even basic maintenance like brake jobs or sensor calibrations.
      • Shops must invest in advanced tools that can bypass these secure gateways to remain competitive.
    • Strategic Operational Trends
      • Technician Efficiency: With the labor shortage persisting, shops are moving toward digital-first operations. Tools that automate work orders and parts management are essential to maximize "wrench time."
      • Data Over Inventory: By 2035, more revenue is expected to come from recurring digital services (like software maintenance) than one-time parts sales. Mastery of the "Software Handshake" is now as critical as mechanical skill.
      • Supply Chain Resilience: 46% of shops cite rising parts prices as their No. 1 challenge. Successful shops are diversifying their global supply chains rather than relying on a single, local transactional partner.
      • AI Integration: AI is being embedded into workflows to help less-experienced technicians complete complex repairs through intelligent repair guidance and real-time decision support.
    • Evolving Consumer Expectations
      • Today's customers prioritize digital convenience and transparency. Over 70% of consumers now look for features like online scheduling, real-time digital updates and transparent digital approvals before selecting a repair facility.
      • High-performing shops are moving away from traditional "call-back" cultures toward seamless, mobile-friendly communication platforms.

Auto Parts Retailers

  • There are over nearly 78K auto parts stores in the U.S. that primarily sell new and used automotive parts and accessories. In some cases, they may offer repair and installation services as well. Industry revenue is anticipated to increase at an annualized rate of 1.3% to $80B by 2031. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
  • Auto parts stores will experience mounting external competition in the coming years from e-commerce sales (eBay Motors and Amazon Garage. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
  • The trend of rising costs in the automotive aftermarket has intensified. Driven by persistent inflation and the aging of the U.S. vehicle fleet, price elevation has reached new milestones compared to the 2019 baseline. (Source: Circana, January 2026)
    • By late 2025, the average price of an automotive tire was nearly 50% higher than it was in 2019.
    • Overall average prices in the retail sector are forecast to climb an additional 3% in 2026, matching the growth rate seen throughout 2025.
    • Due to rising costs, the price of a "Tier 1" (premium) tire now averages $113 more than a budget "Tier 4" tire, a significant jump that is driving many consumers to trade down.
  • Critical parts including anything vital for running a vehicle account for nearly 52% of industry revenue. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Critical parts can either be new (44.8% of revenue) or used (7% of revenue) with new options vastly more popular than their more affordable counterparts.
    • Auto parts stores keep a healthy stock of critical items (e.g., engine pumps and belts, batteries, carburetors and radiators) since consumers cannot put off replacing them.
    • Critical parts are the most expensive products in auto parts stores with new critical parts representing the industry's single largest revenue stream.
  • Maintenance parts account for 30.4% of revenue and include items that are easily replaced regularly. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Some examples of maintenance parts include windshield wipers, brake pads, headlights and oil filters. The nature of these parts makes them less expensive than critical parts. They are much simpler and don't decide whether the car runs.
    • Consumers often put off purchasing these parts when confidence is low, while others turn to repair shops to handle the whole process. Frugal, knowledgeable customers are the ones who keep demand for maintenance parts high.
  • Performance parts enhance the functionality of other parts, boosting the vehicle's performance and account for 12.6% of revenue. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • These modifications can improve horsepower, response times and acceleration, among other things.
    • Hobbyists enjoy taking on projects related to their vehicles, driving up performance parts sales.
    • Tightening fuel-economy standards have disincentivized vehicle modifications, hurting the this section's share of revenue.
  • Vehicle accessories fill out the consumers' carts and include anything nice to have in a vehicle but not functionality-related (e.g., USB chargers, air fresheners, soap, wax and trash cans.) Accounting for 5.2% of revenue, these products provide supplementary income and are often impulse purchases at checkout. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • Some parts, namely soap and wax, gain when times are tough, as consumers seek to save by cutting out extra costs like car washes.
    • These relatively low-priced products are often impulse purchases and stores boost sales of these products by placing items near checkout lines.
  • Many customers, particularly auto enthusiasts, prefer the convenience of smaller stores, which often place greater emphasis on excellent customer service, but the large, well-known brands have built significant brand loyalty and their extensive distribution networks enable them to offer a wide range of parts and superior customer service. Key players include: (Sources: IBISWorld, March 2026; D&B, 2026)
    • O'Reilly Automotive Inc., headquartered in Springfield, Missouri
      • O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the U.S., selling its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional service provider customers, its "dual market strategy".
      • It also offers a range of enhanced services and programs, including oil and battery recycling, battery testing, paint mixing, tool rental, drum and rotor resurfacing, electric and module testing, battery wiper and bulb replacement and check engine light code extraction.
      • O'Reilly operates through a fast-growing network of over nearly 6,500 stores across the U.S., some 5,060 stores in Mexico, as well as online. 
    • AutoZone Inc., headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee
      • AutoZone, the leading distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the Americas, operates a vast network of over 7,700 stores worldwide , about 6,666 in the U,S,, around 895 in Mexico, and about 149 in Brazil.
      • Each location offers an extensive inventory of new and remanufactured parts, maintenance items and accessories for various vehicles.
      • AutoZone employs a dual sales model, catering to individual customers through its retail stores and online, while also supporting professional businesses such as repair garages and dealers via a dedicated commercial sales program with credit and prompt delivery, accessible through its pro-online destination.
    • Genuine Parts Company, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia
      • Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is a leading global service provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts and value-added solutions.
      • The company is the sole member of the National Automotive Parts Association (NAPA), a voluntary trade association that distributes auto parts nationwide.
      • GPC serves a diverse customer base through a network of more than 10,800 locations in more than 15 countries throughout North America, Europe and Australia.
    • Advance Auto Parts Inc., headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina
      • Advance Auto Parts is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, as well as independently owned operators.
      • The company operates about 4,305 stores under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest banners in the U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its stores offer a broad selection of brand names, OEMs and owned brand automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy-duty trucks.
      • The company also serves about 810 independently owned Carquest stores with shipments directly from its distribution centers.
  • The largest market (65.4%) for auto parts stores is households and individuals taking their vehicle maintenance and enhancement into their own hands (DIYers). (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
    • These customers also purchase parts for repairs performed by professionals.
    • Economic trends have a varied impact on DIY customers. When confidence is high, more will take on new projects, while others will use their additional resources to pay repair shops and buy new vehicles.
  • Repair shops typically rely on established relationships with OEMs to minimize input costs, bypassing auto parts stores. BUT when these shops can't find a part they need or are in a time crunch, they turn to auto parts stores and account for 23.3% of auto parts store revenue. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
  • Wholesalers and retailers turn to auto parts stores to expand their offerings. New and used car dealerships are prime examples, as providing the additional parts a customer wants can help close a deal. These buyers typically buy in bulk, boosting revenue but limiting profitability accounting for 6.2% of auto parts stores' revenue. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
  • Other target groups such as businesses, farmers and various government bodies that rely on vehicle fleets or tractors account for 5.1% share of revenue for auto parts stores. (Source: IBISWorld, March 2026)
  • While several variables influence where a customer shops, the following factors are cited as the most critical in recent industry data: (Sources: AutoNetTV, 2026; Circana, 2025; IMR, 2026)
    • Price and Value (26.2%): This remains the top motivator. With the price of premium parts (like Tier 1 tires) now averaging significantly higher than budget options, consumers are increasingly choosing stores based on competitive pricing and the availability of private-label or "value" brands.
    • Inventory Availability: A "frustrating" factor for 2026 consumers is parts availability. Shops and DIYers are gravitating toward stores that can guarantee same-day or next-day delivery, as 22.8% of shops still cite "finding parts" as a major hurdle.
    • Technical Expertise (19.6%): Especially for DIYers, the ability of store staff to provide technical knowledge and ensure the correct part is purchased for complex modern systems is a major secondary driver.
    • Convenience of Location (17.7%): Proximity to the home or repair shop remains a staple factor, particularly for "emergency" repairs where a vehicle is currently disabled.
  • To succeed in 2026 and beyond, auto parts stores must transition from being simple "parts counters" to becoming high-tech resource hubs. Key trends include: (Sources: Auto Care Factbook, 2026; Circana, 2026; IMR, 2026; Fortune Business Insights, 2026)
    • Mastering the "Software-Defined Vehicle"
      • Newer vehicles are essentially computers on wheels. To succeed, stores must offer the specialized tools required to communicate with these systems.
    • Expertise is Your Best Product:
      • 19.6% of consumers choose a store based on the staff's technical knowledge.
    • Digital Convenience:
      • Successful stores in 2026 use real-time inventory apps and "Click-and-Collect" services to minimize the customer's time spent waiting at the counter.
    • Private Label Dominance
      • With 2026 retail prices significantly higher than 2019 levels, consumers are showing a strong "flight to value." Stores that prioritize high-quality private label brands (Tier 2 and Tier 3) are capturing the 35% of the market that is trading down from premium name brands to save on costs.
    • Sustainability and Regulations
      • With 18 states now following Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, parts stores must begin pivoting their stock.
      • This includes increasing inventory for hybrid battery components and specialized low-viscosity fluids required for zero-emission and high-efficiency powertrains.

Source: RAB

Tammy Greenberg, SVP Business Development, RAB

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